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Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе
  • 15 января 2015 |
  • 13:01 |
  • kasta |
  • Просмотров: 783
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  • Комментарии: 3
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Originally my analysis of the Volnovakha incident can be found here:
Evidence Strongly Implicates Russian-Backed Fighters In Bus Shelling That Killed 11 Civilians http://t.co/Im2bZjw6VS pic.twitter.com/0drXW00Yy8
— The Interpreter (@Interpreter_Mag) January 13, 2015
Here is a situation map:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


On a larger scale that looks like this:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


Clearly the rockets came from Russian occupied territory.

In addition I tweeted these things about it:
Can somebody send this to the trolls? Maybe then they stop justifying Putins killings. I blocked all of them already. pic.twitter.com/pYv3gi2oiJ
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) January 13, 2015

@DajeyPetros Do these Russian Propaganda Trolls even have a conscience? Here, all impacts on the back of the tree: pic.twitter.com/N6ZDgEzVVr
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) January 13, 2015
@DajeyPetros Claymores do not make holes in the ground like this. GRAD or other MLRS does. pic.twitter.com/sXw5PCBgzV
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) January 13, 2015


The impacts in the bus show a banded pattern:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


This can be extended to the tree. Such a banded pattern is typically for MLRS impacts, such as GRADs.

Here such a pattern from GRAD can be seen on an appartment building in Pervomaisk:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


The red X is the impact crater.

This is how a warhead of a GRAD explodes:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


It is in a circle around the rocket. It explodes TO ALL SIDES.
When we put the images together, you get this:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


To be precise, the upper side of the warhead matches with the upper blue line:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


While the bottom of the head matches with the lower blue line:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


All in one picture:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


So a typical GRAD blast pattern is:
banded
at an angle
widening further away from the epicentre

This is exactly what we see on the bus:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


What's interesting about this is that we can draw a plane from the banded pattern through the impact hole. And then the impact direction is perpendicular to this plane!

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


(sorry for not being able to draw a better image.)

Also this perpendicular angle has to EXACTLY match the impact hole in the ground (dotted yellow line):

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


So, in this Volnovakha case we see that:
the impact pattern is banded
it is at an angle
it is widening further away from epicentre
the perpendicular direction matches the direction of the impact crater
A mine would give a totally different pattern.

Conclusion
The Russians attacked a Ukrainian checkpost where a bus with civilians was waiting/passing by.
A MLRS rocket (GRAD or larger) hit in the field nearby.
The blast exactly covered the side of the bus, creating the multiple casualties that we see.


UPDATE 14-1
This video is showing the MLRS attack on the Volnovakha checkpoint:



This is a screenshot:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


At least 33 explosions can be counted.
Terrain details match the new video showing an MLRS attack at the Volnovakha checkpoint. pic.twitter.com/xLcFMHC0TY
— Veli-Pekka Kivimäki (@vpkivimaki) January 14, 2015
The video has been recorded like this:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


It means the bus and the hit on the bus can not be seen.
Yet the shadow of that impact CAN be seen on the video (large red circle in screenshot above).

So this video confirms the findings I already explained above. But it also debunk all troll theories.

Here I have mapped all impacts as best as I could:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


There are even some 50 impacts!
It means more than one GRAD launcher must have been used. (If it was not heavier than GRAD).

But also we see the impacts are cut off on top. That is because the camera did not film them.

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


My prediction: there have been a lot more impacts!

MLRS in general show an oval pattern. The question is how big that oval was:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


Or like this:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


The direction of an MLRS attack is related to this pattern like this:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


But we need to have a complete picture first before we can tell something about the final pattern and related direction.

My prediction: since more than 50 impacts can be counted more than one MLRS launcher has been used. And since not all area has been filmed we will find that a lot more impacts have occurred. We have seen dozens of movies with up to five GRAD-launchers, which means 5x40=200 rockets may have been fired...

Let's see what OSCE comes up with...


For more details about GRAD dispersion, look here:
@TimmersE1974 @DajeyPetros http://t.co/KnqnudiX3I say that normal dispersion is 1/130 length, 1/200 width of distance.
— Peter Johnson (@alcebaid) January 14, 2015
And then Peter Johnson asked an important question, I had not considered yet:
@DajeyPetros BTW, what is the length and width of the ellipse in meters?
— Peter Johnson (@alcebaid) January 14, 2015

@DajeyPetros we are doing something wrong... or it was battery fire from two or more machines... :-(((
— Peter Johnson (@alcebaid) January 14, 2015

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


Since the distance/diameter of the area covered is 630 meters, it would mean with the given formula the rockets were fired from some 80 kms distance. Impossible!
Thus the simple conclusion is: this has been caused by more than one MLRS launcher. We already knew this because we had some 50 impacts. So this is a confirmation that multiple launcher were involved.

Bad news is that therefor the spread pattern will not help us to confirm the direction. But that is not a big problem, because we already now that.

Another indication that multiple launchers were used, is that the first 6 explosions happen within 0,28 seconds:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


@DajeyPetros @alcebaid it launches about 2 missile/sec. So it's at least 3 launchers.
— Huberto Cumberdale (@MorbidYoung) January 14, 2015
So, just to make sure everybody understands... MULTIPLE launchers must have been used, because:
there are some 50 impacts and GRAD has 40 tubes
spread pattern is WAY too wide for one launcher
6 first, almost simultaneous impacts can't have been caused by a single launcher.

UPDATE II
A full length speed-up video has been released:



The camera turns to the back now, so we can count some more impacts, but not sure about some:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


The total image looks like this:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


Conclusion: the pattern says nothing about the direction :P.

The video DOES show something else though: civilian cars pass the checkpoint CONSTANTLY. It was not an unfortunate accident that civilians were hit. It was fortunate that NOT MORE civilians were hit! And it was IMPOSSIBLE NOT to hit civilians:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


Draw your own conclusions on that...


These are remains of the rockets found:
Rocket fragments found at site of #Volnovakha bus attack. pic.twitter.com/s7vkubMruH
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) January 14, 2015

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


For comparison see this GRAD rocket from o different place:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


So conclusion: these were GRAD rockets, probably three launchers and they did not fire all their rockets.


Also this photo shows that we don't have to have ANY doubt about the direction:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


It is as was determined above:

Очередной анализ обстрела блокпоста в Волновахе


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